Tag Archives: Nuclear

A Cautionary Tale: Historical Review of the Intelligence Community Predictions about China’s Nuclear Program during the Early 1960s

In 1983 the United State (U.S.) Intelligence Community (IC) conducted a study of intelligence judgement prior to “significant historical failures” of the IC in predicting world events affecting U.S. national security. As the documents below reveal, one of the failures … Continue reading

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Historical Research: Chinese State Media Claims the Soviet Union Threatened China with a Nuclear Strike during the Zhenbao Island Border Conflict

A 2010 article in Cultural and Historical Reference (Wenshi Cankao), a publication of China’s state-controlled People’s Daily media outlet (Renmin Ribao), asserts that the Soviet Union threatened a “surgical” nuclear strike against China and that Chinese leaders publicly communicated the … Continue reading

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AllSource Featured Analysis of the Week: China’s Emerging Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent

This week, AllSource Analysis chose my report “China’s Emergent Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent” as their Featured Analysis of the Week. Below is a preview of the report. For more of this kind of analysis, see the new Intelligence Channels service at AllSource. AllSource Preview – China’s … Continue reading

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Declassified: The U.S. Researched an Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System Called NIKE-X in the 1960s

According to a declassified presidential memo from the Office of the Secretary of Defense to President Lyndon Johnson, the United States was researching an ABM system (the NIKE-X) during the early 1960s as part of its Cold War nuclear arms … Continue reading

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Imagery Identification: China’s Type 094 Ballistic Missile Submarine

According to analysis of Google Earth historical imagery from 29 November 2013, a probable Chinese Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), also known as Type 094 SSBN, was observed with 12 of its ballistic missile hatches probably open.  A SSBN is part of … Continue reading

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China’s 1966 Nuclear Missile Warhead Test was Launched Over Chinese Territory

In 1966, China conducted a risky nuclear missile warhead test across its own territory. China’s fourth nuclear test was the first test of a nuclear warhead fitted to a ballistic missile, and was launched across approximately 1000 kilometers of Chinese territory.  The … Continue reading

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Declassified: The Soviet Union Considered Using Nuclear Weapons against China during 1969 Border Clashes

A declassified Department of State report dated September 4, 1969 detailed statements made by a Soviet military officer to a U.S. Army Attache concerning plans for the possible use of nuclear weapons against China during a series of 1969 border clashes. In … Continue reading

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China’s Top Secret Mao-era Plutonium Production Facility Identified

In 1967 China started the construction of a top secret, underground plutonium production complex in a cave underneath a mountain near Fuling in Sichuan province. The complex, known as Plant 816, was never finished; China declassified the project in 2002, … Continue reading

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New England Political Science Association Conference, 2014

I just attended the New England Political Science Association (NEPSA) conference held in Woodstock, Vermont at the Woodstock Inn. I presented a paper titled “The People’s Nuclear Weapon: Strategic Culture and China’s Nuclear Weapons Program during the Mao Era (1949 – 1975),” … Continue reading

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University of Macau Public Lecture, 23 April 2014

Today I delivered a public lecture at the University of Macau (UM), sponsored by UM’s Department of Government and the Youth Association of International Affairs.  The lecture was titled “The People’s Nuclear Weapon: Strategic Culture and China’s Nuclear Deterrent, 1949-1975.” … Continue reading

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