Category Archives: Nuclear

“China’s Nuclear Submarine Force,” China Brief, Jamestown Foundation.

This is my publication on China’s nuclear submarine force for Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief. It explores how China’s strategic use of geography in the South China Sea – to include the creation of new landmasses anchored with political and military bases … Continue reading

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A Cautionary Tale: Historical Review of the Intelligence Community Predictions about China’s Nuclear Program during the Early 1960s

In 1983 the United State (U.S.) Intelligence Community (IC) conducted a study of intelligence judgement prior to “significant historical failures” of the IC in predicting world events affecting U.S. national security. As the documents below reveal, one of the failures … Continue reading

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Historical Research: Chinese State Media Claims the Soviet Union Threatened China with a Nuclear Strike during the Zhenbao Island Border Conflict

A 2010 article in Cultural and Historical Reference (Wenshi Cankao), a publication of China’s state-controlled People’s Daily media outlet (Renmin Ribao), asserts that the Soviet Union threatened a “surgical” nuclear strike against China and that Chinese leaders publicly communicated the … Continue reading

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AllSource Featured Analysis of the Week: China’s Emerging Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent

This week, AllSource Analysis chose my report “China’s Emergent Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent” as their Featured Analysis of the Week. Below is a preview of the report. For more of this kind of analysis, see the new Intelligence Channels service at AllSource. AllSource Preview – China’s … Continue reading

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Declassified: The U.S. Researched an Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System Called NIKE-X in the 1960s

According to a declassified presidential memo from the Office of the Secretary of Defense to President Lyndon Johnson, the United States was researching an ABM system (the NIKE-X) during the early 1960s as part of its Cold War nuclear arms … Continue reading

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China’s Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent: Incremental Advances and Perennial Limitations

Originally posted on China Policy Institute: Analysis:
Written by Renny Babiarz. According to recent media reports, China may have initiated its first sea-based nuclear deterrence patrols with Jin-Class ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBNs). If true, this operational deployment demonstrably improves…

Posted in China, Nuclear

Imagery Identification: China’s Type 094 Ballistic Missile Submarine

According to analysis of Google Earth historical imagery from 29 November 2013, a probable Chinese Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), also known as Type 094 SSBN, was observed with 12 of its ballistic missile hatches probably open.  A SSBN is part of … Continue reading

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China’s 1966 Nuclear Missile Warhead Test was Launched Over Chinese Territory

In 1966, China conducted a risky nuclear missile warhead test across its own territory. China’s fourth nuclear test was the first test of a nuclear warhead fitted to a ballistic missile, and was launched across approximately 1000 kilometers of Chinese territory.  The … Continue reading

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Declassified: The Soviet Union Considered Using Nuclear Weapons against China during 1969 Border Clashes

A declassified Department of State report dated September 4, 1969 detailed statements made by a Soviet military officer to a U.S. Army Attache concerning plans for the possible use of nuclear weapons against China during a series of 1969 border clashes. In … Continue reading

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China’s Top Secret Mao-era Plutonium Production Facility Identified

In 1967 China started the construction of a top secret, underground plutonium production complex in a cave underneath a mountain near Fuling in Sichuan province. The complex, known as Plant 816, was never finished; China declassified the project in 2002, … Continue reading

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